OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author’s opinion.
President Joe Biden is trailing former President Donald Trump in seven swing states for 2024, with immigration being the hot topic affecting the president’s chances of winning reelection.
In November’s contest in Arizona (47-43 percent), Georgia (49-41), Michigan (47-42), Nevada (48-40), North Carolina (49-39), Pennsylvania (48-45), and Wisconsin (49-44), Biden is trailing the Republican front-runner by three to ten points, according to a Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll.
The average margin of victory for Trump over Biden in all states is 48–42, indicating that Biden’s chances of winning the next election appear slim, Newsweek reported.
Upon further analysis of the results, nearly two-thirds (61 percent) of swing-state voters attributed Biden, at least in part, to the rise in migrants crossing the border between the United States and Mexico. This percentage is higher than the thirty percent who blamed the Trump administration and the thirty percent who blamed Republicans in Congress.
The percentage of voters in the swing states who believe Trump will handle illegal immigration better than Biden is 52 to 30 percent, up from a 5-point difference from the December poll.
According to the poll, most voters in every swing state—aside from Michigan—said they had seen an increase in immigration during the last few years of the Biden administration. But the survey also implies that Trump’s numerous legal problems are still a cloud hanging over his most recent presidential bid.
More than half (53%) of voters in the seven crucial states indicated they would not support Trump if he is found guilty of a crime by November’s election, with 55% stating they would not support him if he received a prison sentence.
In four federal and state investigations, Trump has entered not-guilty pleas to a total of 97 felonies. Before November’s election, a jury could decide his fate in four trials.
Trump has long denied any wrongdoing and claimed that the investigations into him are “witch hunts” with political motivations intended to prevent him from winning the next election.
The results, according to CNN commentator and former Trump White House communications director Alyssa Farah Griffin, show “eye-popping numbers” for Trump in battleground states.
“This should be a 5 alarm fire for the Biden campaign,” Griffin posted on X, formerly Twitter.
Eye-popping numbers for Trump in battleground states. This should be a 5 alarm 🚨 fire for the Biden campaign https://t.co/TGQYnQv1pA
— Alyssa Farah Griffin (@Alyssafarah) January 31, 2024
A leading pollster took a deep dive into the results of a new survey regarding Biden’s job performance and approval one year out from the election, explaining that the data is much worse for him than what’s been reported in the so-called ‘mainstream’ media.
Revolver News, breaking down pollster Richard Baris’ assessment, described the results of a new survey this way:
Key demographic groups aren’t just mad at Joe Biden; they’re abandoning him in droves. When you consider his historically low polls, this isn’t a traditional “presidential slump” that can be brushed off and fixed with some stumping and handshaking. What we’re witnessing right now, and what the media won’t tell you, is that this is a “CODE RED” in the political world. We’re watching the complete collapse of a political figure, and the media is in a frenzy, trying to cover it up.
“The Suffolk/USAToday Poll is showing what we’re all seeing, which is NOT a normal weak showing 1-year out for an incumbent president seeking re-election,” Baris said noted on the X platform.
“Historically, he’s far below Barack Obama at this point (who won) and significantly lower than Donald Trump (who lost). H.W. Bush was higher, but his approval was falling RAPIDLY from far higher than Biden has ever been,” he added.
“It’s not just that these demographic groups are ‘abandoning’ Joe Biden. Donald Trump is gaining among key Democratic constituencies, Hispanic, Under 35. It’s the one poll NOT showing gains among Black voters. Clearly he is in the consensus,” Baris continued.
“I’d just also note that ‘enthusiasm’ and ‘voting likelihood’ are not the same thing. Higher turnout benefits Trump. People need to get used to understanding that now,” he wrote.