The Republican Party is feeling the reverberations of a significant political shock in North Carolina, a key battleground state that will be pivotal in the upcoming 2024 U.S. presidential election. At the center of this turmoil is Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, a prominent Republican candidate running for governor. Robinson, who has been a controversial figure throughout his career, has recently been embroiled in a scandal that threatens to upend Republican efforts to maintain their stronghold in the state.
Robinson is the focus of a CNN report, which alleges that he once referred to himself as a “black Nazi” on an adult website over a decade ago. Robinson, who is running to become North Carolina’s first Black governor, has vehemently denied the accusations, labeling them as “tabloid lies.” Despite the controversy, many of Robinson’s supporters remain steadfast in their loyalty, dismissing the allegations as irrelevant to his political agenda.
The political consequences of this scandal, however, are uncertain. While Robinson’s base may not be swayed by the allegations, there is concern that the broader electorate, particularly moderate Republicans and independents, may turn away from him, potentially jeopardizing the Republican Party’s chances of winning this critical gubernatorial race.
Divisive Statements and a Troubling History
Long before the current scandal broke, Mark Robinson had already established himself as a lightning rod for controversy. His outspoken views on abortion, LGBTQ+ rights, and education have alienated many voters and drawn fierce criticism from both sides of the political spectrum. In a 2019 Facebook video, Robinson infamously suggested that women should be “responsible enough to keep your skirt down,” a comment that sparked outrage. In 2021, he made headlines again by referring to discussions of transgender and homosexual issues in schools as “filth.” Despite these remarks, Robinson has refused to apologize or soften his stance.
These incendiary comments, combined with the recent allegations, have left many within the Republican Party deeply concerned. Steven Greene, a political scientist from North Carolina State University, has described Robinson’s campaign as a “dumpster fire.” There are fears that Robinson could act as a political albatross, driving voters away from the Republican ticket and energizing Democratic turnout.
Grassroots Loyalty and Republican Divisions
Despite the growing scandal, Robinson’s supporters remain loyal, particularly within conservative strongholds like Johnston County. At a recent meeting of the Johnston County Republican Women’s committee, attendees expressed unwavering support for Robinson. Adele Walker, a 52-year-old committee member, dismissed the allegations as a personal matter and irrelevant to Robinson’s political qualifications. In fact, the group decided to increase their financial support for his campaign, doubling down on their commitment.
However, not all Republicans are standing by Robinson. Scott Lassiter, a Republican candidate for the North Carolina State Senate, voiced his disappointment that Robinson did not drop out of the gubernatorial race before a crucial deadline, which would have allowed the party to field a different candidate. Lassiter sees Robinson as a liability for the party, stating that the scandal plays directly into Democratic hands, allowing them to paint the entire Republican platform with Robinson’s controversies.
With the stakes in North Carolina so high, divisions within the Republican Party are becoming more apparent. Some Republicans worry that Robinson’s continued candidacy could depress voter turnout, particularly among moderates and independents, who may be put off by his inflammatory rhetoric and the allegations swirling around him.
North Carolina’s Role in the 2024 Presidential Election
The importance of North Carolina in the 2024 presidential election cannot be overstated. As one of the most hotly contested swing states, North Carolina holds 16 electoral votes, which could prove decisive in the race for the White House. Historically, the state has leaned Republican, but its growing urban centers, particularly in areas like Charlotte and Raleigh, have shifted the political landscape in recent years, making it more competitive.
In the 2020 election, Donald Trump narrowly won North Carolina by approximately 75,000 votes. This slim margin underscores the potential impact that Robinson’s controversy could have on the overall election. If Robinson’s scandal depresses Republican turnout or motivates more Democrats to vote, it could significantly affect not only the gubernatorial race but also the presidential race.
Polling data from Emerson College and The Hill, released just before the CNN report, showed Vice President Kamala Harris leading Trump by one percentage point in North Carolina. Although this lead is within the margin of error, it highlights how competitive the state is likely to be in 2024. Republicans cannot afford to lose North Carolina, as it is a crucial part of Trump’s path to the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency. Political analysts, including Steven Greene, argue that it is far easier to envision a scenario where Harris wins the presidency without North Carolina than one where Trump does the same.
The Democrats’ Growing Optimism
Democrats are increasingly optimistic about their chances in North Carolina. Josh Stein, the state’s attorney general and Robinson’s likely opponent in the gubernatorial race, has been leading in early polls. Stein has positioned himself as a moderate, focusing on issues like healthcare access, economic development, and protecting voting rights. The controversy surrounding Robinson has only bolstered Stein’s campaign, giving Democrats a potential edge in a state that has been stubbornly Republican for decades.
In addition to the gubernatorial race, the controversy surrounding Robinson could also affect down-ballot races, from the state legislature to congressional seats. With control of the U.S. Congress at stake, both parties are pouring resources into key races across North Carolina. Democrats are hoping that the state’s growing urban population, along with an energized base driven by issues like abortion rights and LGBTQ+ protections, will help tip the scales in their favor.
The Impact on Trump’s Endorsement
Donald Trump, who has endorsed Robinson in the past, is also facing pressure to distance himself from the embattled lieutenant governor. Trump previously praised Robinson as “Martin Luther King on steroids,” but with the latest allegations, it remains to be seen how the former president will respond. As of now, Robinson will not be attending Trump’s upcoming rally in Wilmington, North Carolina, raising questions about whether Trump will continue to stand by his endorsement or shift his support to another candidate.
For Trump, North Carolina is a must-win state, and any distractions or scandals that could potentially turn voters away from the Republican ticket are causes for concern. While Trump’s base has proven to be remarkably resilient in the face of controversies, Robinson’s issues could prove to be a bridge too far for more moderate or undecided voters.
Voter Sentiment and Turnout
As November approaches, voter sentiment in North Carolina remains deeply divided. Conservative voters like Adele Walker and others in Johnston County are sticking by Robinson, viewing the scandal as a distraction and reaffirming their loyalty to both Robinson and Trump. However, other Republicans are less convinced. One anonymous voter stated that while he would not vote for Robinson due to his “loud mouth,” he still supported Trump and would vote for him in the upcoming election.
For Democrats, Robinson’s comments and the broader controversy surrounding him are motivating factors. Evelyn Costelloe, a 66-year-old voter who has shifted away from the Republican Party in recent years, pointed to Robinson’s past remarks on abortion and LGBTQ+ rights as reasons for her renewed interest in the election. For voters like Costelloe, Robinson’s rhetoric represents everything they oppose, and his presence on the ballot only strengthens their resolve to vote against the Republican ticket.
The Road Ahead
As the gubernatorial race in North Carolina unfolds, it remains to be seen how the controversy surrounding Mark Robinson will play out. For now, the Republican Party finds itself in a precarious position, balancing the loyalty of Robinson’s base with the potential fallout from moderate and independent voters who may be turned off by his inflammatory statements and alleged past behavior.
For Democrats, the scandal presents an opportunity to make inroads in a state that has been a Republican stronghold for decades. With Josh Stein leading in early polls and voter turnout expected to be high, North Carolina could prove to be the pivotal battleground in both the gubernatorial and presidential elections. In the end, much will depend on how the Republican Party navigates the controversy surrounding its candidate and whether it can unite behind a message that appeals to a broad swath of the electorate.
