OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author’s opinion.
Former President Donald Trump’s campaign got some more good news this week following the results of a survey in a bellwether battleground state.
According to the latest Emerson College Polling survey, Trump is besting Biden by 12 points in the key state of Ohio, 45-33 percent. The survey of 438 registered voters has a margin of error of +/- 4.5 points.
Incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) is also trailing behind two prospective GOP challengers while leading a third potential Republican opponent, the survey found. Also, while Biden’s job approval rating is -33 percent in the Buckeye State, GOP Gov. Mike DeWine is above water by +6 percent.
“Trump leads Biden by 12 points in Ohio, a larger lead than his 2020 and 2016 victories of about eight points,” Emerson College Professor Spencer Kimball noted. “Like in the U.S. Senate race, younger and minority voters are more likely to be undecided or voting for someone else — indicating lower enthusiasm for Democratic candidates both at the statewide and national level.”
When they were asked if something occurred over the next few months that may cause them to rethink the candidate they are currently supporting, about 55 percent of Trump backers said they wouldn’t vote for Biden while 49 percent of Biden voters said nothing would change their minds.
Kimball also addressed the survey’s findings regarding Brown’s election.
“With just over a year until the 2024 Ohio U.S. Senate election, many established Democratic demographics, like voters under 30 and Black voters, are demonstrating a lower level of enthusiasm toward Brown,” Kimball noted. “It is not that these voters are supporting the Republican candidate over Brown, they are choosing to select someone else or note they are undecided at this point. About a third of voters under 30 indicate they would vote for someone else or are undecided in a Brown/Dolan matchup; 38% of Black voters indicate the same.”
“An encouraging sign for Brown is that he leads Republicans by several points among independent voters,” Kimball added.
📊 OHIO 2024 POLL: Emerson (A-)
(R) Trump 45%
(D) Biden 33%
(R) Dolan 38%
(D) Brown 36%
(R) LaRose 39%
(D) Brown 38%
(D) Brown 35%
(R) Moreno 33%
Biden: 25/58 (-33)
DeWine: 34/28 (+6)
10/2-4 | 438 RV | MoE: ±4.5%https://t.co/LIdTB8463L pic.twitter.com/Fgvzh2gej8
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 10, 2023
Last week, a major new poll spelled more bad news for Biden while giving a huge new boost to his most likely 2024 opponent, Trump.
“A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds a close presidential race: former President Donald Trump receives 51% and President Joe Biden gets 48% among registered voters, while Biden has a 51% advantage over Trump’s 49% among likely voters—those who say they are certain they will vote in the presidential election,” the survey said.
However, where Trump excels is in other areas like voter enthusiasm. Also, Biden’s policies are dramatically hindering his ability to perform better in the survey.
Per the Interactive Polls account on the “X” platform, here is a summary of the polling results:
Marquette Poll: Who would handle the following issues better?
The Economy: Trump 52% (+24) Biden 28%
Border Security: Trump 52% (+24) Biden 28%
Inflation: Trump 50% (+23) Biden 27%
Creating Jobs: Trump 49% (+19) Biden 30%
Foreign Relations Trump 43% (+5) Biden 38%
Medicare and SSA Biden 39% (+2) Trump 37%
Abortion policy Biden 43% (+9) Trump 34%
Climate change Biden 44% (+20) Trump 24%
Notably, in most national surveys of issues that are the most important to Americans, ‘climate change’ and ‘abortion’ regularly rank far below other issues like ‘jobs,’ ‘the economy,’ ‘inflation,’ and ‘border security.’
Trump draws a majority 51% support among registered voters to just 48% for Biden, but Trump has an 8-point lead (54%-46%) among those “very enthusiastic” and a 6-point lead (53%-47%) among those “somewhat enthusiastic,” according to the poll.
Biden flips the results and leads Trump by 8 points (53%-45%) among those “not too/not at all enthusiastic” to vote, perhaps putting the age-old emphasis on voter turnout.
“Trump has long argued mail-in balloting, pushed by Democrats, helped outdo the voter enthusiasm component of presidential elections, giving Biden more votes than he would have otherwise received with in-person voting during the 2020 presidential election,” the report continued, adding that Newsmax TV contributor Dick Morris has pointed out that Trump had more voters show up on Election Day in 2020, but Biden won the mail-in vote.